Professor Dr Pierre Dechamps, Senior Advisor for FTI Consulting, provides insights into the achievements and challenges of the EU Green Deal, as well as the best- and worst-case trajectories of the upcoming European Parliament elections for the continent’s energy transition.
The European Green Deal was set up to ensure Paris Agreement targets are met and place the EU as a key competitive player in the energy transition. But with the elections coming up in the first half of 2024, how has it fared?
“If I had to rate what [the Green Deal] has delivered I would give it a very good mark. But it’s not a done deal. It’s not something which has an end date,” explains Dechamps in an exclusive interview at Enlit Europe 2023 in Paris.
When considering the unforeseen circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Dechamps notes that the Green Deal has demonstrated commendable resilience, surpassing expectations, especially regarding energy supply issues.
Considering this, he says, “the EU Green Deal has delivered even more than expected (specifically) in the chapters which are linked to energy security.”
He adds, “what it has achieved so far is it has set very ambitious objectives. I think that the next phase is to turn those (…) into reality.”
Dechamps notes that the journey is far from complete, with the real test lying in the implementation phase. The Green Deal’s ambitious goals, he says, face the formidable challenge of transitioning from aspirations to concrete actions.
“To really judge (its success) we will need to see how it delivers by 2030 and even by 2050,” he adds.
Have you read:
‘I am awed by energy transition innovation’ says GE Vernova’s Blanco
Grid resilience lessons from the frontline of climate change
Upcoming elections
The ambitions of the Green Deal, comments Dechamps, can also be looked at as a signal of what the best-case and worst-case outcomes would be for upcoming European Parliament elections in 2024.
Specifically, the best-case involves maintaining, or even increasing, its ambitions:
“The best-case scenario is relatively easy to define: it’s a scenario where we would keep the level of ambition of the EU Green Deal as it’s been defined.
“We would even increase it, possibly, if there is a global realisation by the other regions of the world that decarbonisation is key in improving the competitiveness of the industry in a Paris (Agreement)-compatible world…
“It would need to be complemented now by implementing the EU Green Deal objectives, which have been set up so far. That’s the best case.”
More from Enlit Europe 2023:
New Managing Director of Siemens Energy France shares her vision for the energy transition
We don’t know what the future of the grid looks like… yet
On the flip side, however, Dechamps states that the worst-case scenario is characterised by a surge in populist votes across Member States, coupled with a reduction in the Green Deal’s ambition.
This scenario would pose a significant threat to the implementation phase of the Green, potentially derailing progress and inviting negative reactions from other global regions, “for instance, towards our Carbon Border Adjustment measure.
“There is a possible coalescence of negative factors around the EU elections, which would put us off course of a path towards a Paris-compatible world (in) 2050.
Dechamps thus states the importance of a socially just transition embedded within the Green Deal, emphasizing the need for citizens across Member States to perceive the initiative as fair and equitable; “if not, we are (at) risk of heading towards the worst case scenario.”
Make sure to watch the full interview with Professor Dr Dechamps for his insights into how competitiveness was at the core of the Green Deal’s ethos, even when considering how global geopolitics have unfolded in 2023.
